Monday, January 21, 2008

Strategy for an economic rebound

Because the United States is either already in a recession or is headed for one, policy makers need to act now to craft an effective economic stimulus package to spur growth and job creation. Without a stimulus of sufficient magnitude, the U.S. economy is likely to see a decline in growth or even a formal recession, leading to higher unemployment, declining or stagnant wages, and a host of other economic problems. A package that provides $140 billion of stimulus—1% of GDP—would begin to reverse our economic course by creating an additional 1.4 to 1.7 million jobs. EPI unveils a broad-based, three-part prescription for stimulating the economy in its new Briefing Paper, Strategy for Economic Rebound—Smart Stimulus to Counter the Economic Slowdown. (News release [PDF])

Warnings of steep increase in black unemployment
As the nation prepares to commemorate Martin Luther King Day, data indicate a national economic recession would result in disproportionately high unemployment rates for African Americans as compared to white Americans. In a new Issue Brief, EPI closely examines What a recession means for black America.

Real wages decline in 2007
Both hourly and weekly earnings fell in 2007, a sharp reversal from the gains in 2006. For details on last year's decline in wages and the trend over the past few years, read EPI's new Issue Brief .

Rich man, poor man: The life expectancy gap
New research on Social Security-covered males shows an increase in longevity for older participants. But the increase occurred mostly among those in the top half of the earnings distribution—and the longevity gap is growing between the rich and the poor. Read about it in this week's Economic Snapshot. (Sign up to receive announcements of new Snapshots by email.)

Job market flashing recession
For same-day analysis of the latest employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, read EPI's Jobs Picture.

Retirement security
The financial well-being of average Americans is under assault. Rising economic inequality and increasing economic pressure on the middle class from globalization, the decline in unionization, and bad public policies are threatening the financial security of average Americans in ways we haven't seen in more than 60 years. As part of the Agenda for Shared Prosperity, we have examined retirement security, and as our new Briefing Papers in this area show, the problems are enormous. Read more in this policy memo from EPI vice president Ross Eisenbrey.

Median family income growth
The current recovery may well be winding down, yet the most recent data show that the real income of middle-class families has yet to regain its prior peak. Read Jared Bernstein's analysis that was recently featured in this New York Times editorial.

Current account deficit improves despite growing Asian trade deficits
For analysis of the latest Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly report on the U.S. current account balance, read EPI's International Picture.

The Marketing of Economics History
A new EPI Issue Brief and a more-detailed Working Paper show that a couple of the numbers recently introduced into the never-ending trade debate—one on the purported measure of how much past trade agreements have added to the U.S. economy and the other on how much future agreements will add to American incomes—both derive from the same flawed study that was seemingly designed to promote the globalization status quo.

Increase in inequality is highest on record
New, high-quality data from the Congressional Budget Office reveal an historical sharp increase in household income inequality over the past few years. The increase in income concentration among the rich in the 2003-05 period has been the largest on record, and has resulted in a transfer of $400 billion dollars from households in the bottom 95% of the income scale to those in the top 5%. Read a full analysis in this EPI Issue Brief.

Agenda for Shared ProsperityThree new reports on retirement security
EPI's latest Agenda for Shared Prosperity event included the release of three new reports on retirement security. Teresa Ghilarducci (New School for Social Research) discussed her new briefing paper, Guaranteed Retirement Accounts, a plan that combines the best features of traditional defined-benefit pensions and 401(k)-style defined-contribution plans. Nancy Altman (Pension Rights Center) contributed a briefing paper on Protecting Social Security's Beneficiaries, and Virginia Reno (National Academy of Social Insurance) presented her briefing paper about Building on Social Security's Success. Audio, video, and a full transcript from this event are now available. (News release [PDF])

Who's vulnerable to offshoring?
In recent years there has been increased attention to the fact that more jobs, particularly white-collar jobs, have become vulnerable to being offshored. This new analysis examines the characteristics of these jobs. Examining the occupations identified by Princeton economics professor Alan Blinder as "potentially offshorable," this EPI analysis finds that between 18% and 22% of today's jobs — about 25 to 30 million — could potentially be offshored. Interestingly, the workers most vulnerable to offshoring are those with at least a four-year college degree.

The pain of globalization
Read this op-ed from Jared Bernstein and Josh Bivens in EPI's Viewpoints.

The Erosion of Employment-based Health Insurance
This EPI Briefing Paper documents the chilling trend in the erosion of the health insurance most Americans receive, employer-provided coverage. The situation has steadily worsened since 2000, as evinced by both the national and state-level data contained in this report. (News release [PDF])

Economy sees strong growth in the face of housing implosion
For analysis of the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, see EPI's GDP Picture.

Strengthening Unemployment Insurance
In conjunction with the Agenda for Shared Prosperity, Urban Institute Expert Wayne Vroman critiques a proposal to replace unemployment insurance with wage insurance and private "temporary earnings replacement accounts." Vroman suggests that making unemployment insurance more broadly available is a higher priority than wage insurance and personal accounts are bad policy. Read the entire report and the news release [PDF] online.

Globalization and American Wages
The continuing integration of the rich United States with a far poorer global economy has provoked much anxiety among American workers. EPI's Briefing Paper, Globalization and American Wages, makes clear that such anxiety is well-founded. In fact, contrary to popular rhetoric, conventional economic theory argues that American workers will indeed be harmed by this integration. This paper also provides empirical estimates of integration's effect on American wages and inequality, and uses some prominent forecasts about the future of service-sector offshoring to explore the possible wage implications of going further down this road.

Vouchers and Public School PerformanceVouchers and Public School Performance
School choice and vouchers have become an increasingly important part of that educational reform policy debate. The debate is rooted in ideological differences between market proponents, who attach greater importance to individual choice, and supporters of a publicly run educational system, who place greater importance on equity, commonality, and public accountability. In a new book, Vouchers and Public School Performance, authors Martin Carnoy, Frank Adamson, Amita Chudgar, Thomas Luschei, and John Witte ask whether there is evidence that increased competition among schools introduced by a large-scale voucher plan in an urban school district, Milwaukee, resulted in improved student performance in public elementary schools. The study uses data from an extensive choice reform in Milwaukee's Public School District, a district with the typical educational problems of an American urban center, but unusual in that it has had a voucher plan targeted at low-income students since 1990—the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program.

Alleviating PovertyAlleviating poverty
The Agenda for Shared Prosperity forum Alleviating Poverty was held on Tuesday, October 2. Author Barbara Ehrenreich, Nancy Cauthen of Columbia University's National Center for Children and Poverty, and EPI's Jared Bernstein discussed various issues and present new research on the topic of poverty amelioration. Check out audio, video, slide shows, and a full transcript from the event.

Why SCHIP matters
Despite passing the Senate with substantial bipartisan support, President Bush has promised to veto the SCHIP expansion on "philosophical" grounds. For a clear understanding as to why this is wrongheaded, read the EPI Policy Memo, Why SCHIP Matters.

Enriching Children, Enriching the NationEnriching Children, Enriching the Nation
Research is increasingly demonstrating that the policy of investing in high-quality prekindergarten programs provides a wide array of significant benefits to children, families, and society as a whole, including job creation, inequality reduction, education and health care improvement, and reduced crime rates. In the EPI book, Enriching Children, Enriching the Nation: Public Investment in High-Quality Prekindergarten, Robert G. Lynch examines the costs and benefits of both a targeted and a universal prekindergarten program and shows the positive impact of these programs on the economy, federal and state budgets, crime, and the educational achievement and earnings of children and adults. Fact sheets for all 50 states and the District of Columbia serve as an addendum to EPI's recently released book Enriching Children, Enriching the Nation by Robert G. Lynch. He examines the costs and benefits of pre-K programs and their positive impact over time on federal and state budgets, crime costs, and the earnings of participating children and adults. (News release [PDF])

Stay in the loop
Sign up now to stay informed of institute projects, releases, and events.

0 comments: